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Soon Digital Photography Will Rule

We've passed the point of no return in the shift from film to bits.

Photography is in the early stages of the most massive transformation since Kodak introduced the Brownie in 1900. The change-from analog film-based photography to digital imaging-is accelerating as digital cameras improve in quality while declining in price and as new software and support services put powerful capabilities in the hands of consumers.
In 1998, only 4% of cameras sold in the United States (excluding one-time-use cameras) were digital; in 2000, that figure reached 30%, and it's still climbing. Demand has been driven by the appeal of eliminating the cost and hassle of film and processing, the immediacy of digital photos, and the ease of sharing images electronically, via e-mail or Web posting. Digital cameras are fast becoming mainstream products, and trends suggest film will soon be relegated to a niche role, with profound implications.
One barrier to acceptance has been limited image quality- though today's midrange ($300 to $600) digital cameras are entirely adequate for consumer use. The relentless advance in semiconductor performance predicted by Moore's Law means that digital cameras are steadily improving as prices fall-just like PCs did. The latest high-end point-and-shoot digital cameras now offer 5 megapixel image-capture chips (called CCDs) with resolutions up to 2,560x1,920 pixels. Minolta, Nikon, Olympus, and Sony offer cameras with this resolution-good enough for 11x14 prints-for less than $1,000. Only a year ago, 3 megapixel cameras were in the same price range.
Another obstacle to moving digital cameras into the mainstream is the challenge of handling images after they've been captured. In the analog world, consumers drop film at a discount store and pick up prints an hour (or a day) later. Photos are then collected in the
In 2000,30% of the cameras sold in the U.S. were digital.
shoebox, with a few making their way into albums or onto refrigerator doors, and fewer still getting enlarged and framed. Despite inconveniences of this method, it is a comfortable habit.
Digital photography, in contrast, can be complex and intimidating. While digital processing offers flexibility, users must leam how to transfer images to a PC, edit them, and store them using assorted software programs, then output the pictures to a photo printer, e-mail them to family and friends or post them on the Web. At present, few experts can help users through this process. Better software is needed to make the experience easier, and Microsoft has taken an important step with Windows XP, which can handle basic photo processes such as printing and e-mailing. More help is needed, however, creating opportunities for companies

like ACD, Adobe, Arcsoft, MGI, and my own, Fotiva.
It's also possible to eliminate complexity by taking the PC out of the picture. Photo appliances such as Kodak's digital picture frame and Iomega's FotoShow let users order prints and, to a limited degree, share and save photos without a computer. Some printers can print images directly from a camera or memory card. But these approaches, though simple, don't deliver a full solution for consumers' needs.
The shift to digital processing will transform a $30 billion industry. At present, most profits come from film, paper, and processing. In the digital era, spending on film disappears, while much of the paper and processing revenues shift to suppliers of photo paper and ink cartridges for ink-jet printers. Kodak and Fuji, the biggest earners today, will be challenged by Hewlett-Packard, Epson, and Canon, makers of digital cameras and ink-jet printers-plus highly profitable printer supplies. Companies providing PC software-notably Microsoft, AOL, and Adobe- stand to gain a critical role in the photo industry by controlling the way consumers access their photos.
Many pictures will be printed at home, especially by those making just a few prints. Photofinishing services capable of producing high-quality silver halide prints will also grow popular, as transmitting image data to service providers becomes easier. Widespread use of such services will require more sophisticated PC software and widespread broadband connections.
No matter how easy access to photofinishing for digital images becomes, the total volume of prints will fall. In the film world, every image is printed and most are printed twice-though three-fourths of them aren't worth printing at all. Since digital photos can be previewed onscreen, bad pictures won't get printed. Even many good pictures won't be printed-they will be viewed onscreen and shared electronically.
However, formats besides conventional 4x6-inch prints will see tremendous growth. Enlargements are rarely made from analog photos because it's just too much trouble to find the negative. In the digital world, "negatives" are readily available, assuming you can find the images on your PC or on an Internet service. Ordering an 8 x l0 inch or print is as easy as ordering a 4 x 6 inch print.
In time, albums, calendars, and other collections of photos will capture the lion's share of photo output dollars. A thematic collection of good pictures, such as those from a vacation or a family event, will make a printed album far more appealing than a stack of 4x6-inch prints-and coming technology will make it just as easy to order.
Michael Slater (michael@fotiva.com), chairman of photo-solutions developer Fotiva, Inc., was founder and editor of The Microprocessor Report.

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